Scaling Radar — July 29

2026-07-29

Data: the local 00:16 run (iOS-only, --no-android). 143 in scoring, 24 above the threshold,
of which 13 are new alerts. The comparison base is July 26 (the DB has no charts for the 27th–28th),
so all deltas (new_countries, rank_jump) are three-day, not daily.
A fresh re-pull from the sandbox is impossible — the network to Apple is closed there (as on the 27th).

New alerts

Happy Restaurant®3D (DRAGONVALE LIMITED) — 81.7, the day's maximum. A salvo into 8 countries at once
(au, be, fr, id, ph, pt, sg, th — a mix of Tier-1 EU and SEA), jump 84, best 16 (BE).
Contribution: rank_jump 30 + geo 28 + chart_entry 14. Almost no reviews (0.2/day) at an age of
92 days — the charts are being moved by pure buying, not organics. A classic start of scaling.

Endless Puncher (Rollic) — 74.8. Five countries (dk, hk, kr, nz, tw), best 5 in HK,
jump 95. Contribution: rank_jump 30 + geo 16 + chart 14 + publisher 10. An age of 159 days and
that set of geos looks like CPI profiling before a decision on a global launch — Rollic
pulled the title off the shelf. Watch whether it adds Tier-1.

MineBall (Bilal Yasar) — 61.7. 6 days from release, top 3 in TR + Austria. Now that's
the earliest signal of the day: the score is below the leaders, but by profile (young + narrow geo +
top of the chart in a test country) this is exactly the beginning of the phase, not the tail. A priority watch.

Reality Bay: Merge & Discover (Moon Active) — 56.2. Top 25 in DE, 24 reviews/day,
age 163 days. Moon Active is testing a new merge title in an expensive geo — the signal is
corporate rather than about the game: if the DE test works, they'll pour wide.

Bubble Word Associations (NewPubCo) — 59.8, eg+pk — cheap geos, 0 reviews/day:
a CPI test on cheap traffic, too early to judge. Hunting Rivals (Keystorm) — 58.5,
ng+dk, 5 reviews/day — the same thing, but dk paired with ng hints at a deliberate test.

The rest of the new ones (Revlo, Chameleon Hide, Speed Run ASMR, Octopus Shooter, UFL, Favela
Elite, HexMoji) — one country each, and most have almost no reviews. The experience of the 27th
(15 records like that, all dropped out within a day) says: one country with no review pace is noise.
UFL is licensed football from XTEN, not HC at all.

Most interesting by stage, not by score

1. Lordrush (Century Games) — 55.2, but it's the main story of the day: 10 days from release,
9 → 16 countries in three days (+gb, br, ca, ae, cz, no, se — Tier-1 has started), best 2 in IN,
54.5 reviews/day accelerating +24.5%. An active ramp phase right now.
2. MineBall — see above. The earliest entry point on the whole list.
3. Highway Heroes: Truck Manager (Pixel Federation) — 43.9. A week from release,
1 → 6 countries (cz, es, gr, nz, pt, za), best 8 in PT. The transition from soft launch to the first
expansion — exactly the moment the radar is supposed to catch.
4. Happy Restaurant 3D — by the scale of the salvo, the main candidate for "they've started buying
seriously," but 8 countries at once means we've already missed the test phase.
5. Warline: Sniper Strike (Powerfantasy) — 40 countries on day 7, 359 reviews/day
(+37.9%). Caught at a global launch — too late for entry, but the pace is still growing.

For contrast: Meowdoku (34 countries, 1,655 reviews/day) — already scaled, interesting
only as an indicator of Oakever's portfolio.

Movement over three days (against the 26th)

Added geo: Bubble Word Jam 13→20, Profile Perfect 19→25, Colony Flow 23→28,
Royal Smash 15→17 (holding top 1 TR), CubeAway 24→27, Sprite Catch 2→5 (+us, gb, ca —
indie, but reviews +80%). Slowed down on reviews: Royal Smash 822→446/day, Meowdoku
2,232→1,655, CubeAway 589→540 — for those three, the buying peak looks to have passed.
All 15 single-country records from the list of the 27th dropped out (Wish Upon a Cat, Metal Slug Rush,
Word Kitchen, Duck Survival and others) — confirmation that it was noise.

Publishers

• Lion Studios — 2 titles on the list (Bubble Word Jam, Profile Perfect), both actively
• expanding geo. Portfolio buying.
• Oakever — Meowdoku on the list + Amaze GO! in runner-up. A portfolio.
• VoyagerOne — Police Chief + Hollywood Merge in runner-up, both at 20+ countries.
• Moon Active (Reality Bay) and Rollic (Endless Puncher) — new tests from the big players.
• Century Games — Lordrush; after Warline/Powerfantasy this is the second Chinese
• publisher ramping a strategy through HC channels within a week.

Caveats

Not a cold start, but the deltas are three-day (see above). reviews_growth_pct = 0 on all new
alerts is an artifact of first appearance on the list, not an absence of growth. Android is still
switched off: geo coverage and reviews are understated for titles with Android-first buying.

List edits

pixel federation and dragonvale limited were added to HC_PUBLISHERS. Keystorm and
NewPubCo weren't added — one title each with a weak review pace, not enough confidence.