Scaling Radar — weekly digest, September 4–10

2026-09-11

A check on my own forecasts: who the radar flagged over the week and what became of them.

They delivered

Wild Water World (Just Game, 9 days) — title of the week. 11 → 19 countries, holding #1 all seven days without a single dip. The ramp went HK/JP/KR/TH → SG/GB → AR/BR/CO/MX. The peak was 21 countries, now 19 — a plateau, but at the top.

Pixel Gun 2 (Cubic, 6 days) — 10 → 18 countries, but the path is ragged: 10 → 7 → 2 → 18. An impulse burst, exactly as we said. What's new: on Android it entered Grossing and started moving there — #84 in one country → #49 in six, while Top Free sits at one country #88. Buying on iOS, money on Android.

Police Car Parking Game 3D (Knights IOS, 49 days) — 1 → 12 → 6 countries. Flew in, pulled back, but still above its start.

Fish Sort Puzzle — Bubble Jam (SUPLIFE) — 3 → 8 countries, rank #17 → #9. So far it is holding up.

They didn't move

Of the 48 iOS titles the radar flagged over the week, 21 stayed on a single country and did not budge for a single day: Survivor Tapper, GOGO! Blast, Home Tile, Lavawake Rush and the rest. That is the normal baseline of the signal — one country in the top-25 is not a scaling phase, it is a one-off spike. It only makes sense to watch the ones that add geo from day two onward.

Separately: Sand Fill (Stormborn), which I praised on Monday for 6 countries on iOS, left iOS on the 8th and has not come back. On Android it is alive but tiny — 4 countries #35. A two-day salvo, not a launch.

Where the soft launches go

The map of the cheap test split across platforms this week.

iOS: Hong Kong (9 entries), Vietnam, Taiwan, Pakistan.
Android: Denmark, India, Norway, Greece, Switzerland, Finland, Ireland, Singapore — 7–8 entries each.

On Android they test on northern Europe and small expensive markets, on iOS on cheap Asian ones. One publisher regularly starts the iOS version in HK and the Android one in DK.

Genres

The only genre gaining countries per title was Racing: +1.5 countries per game (17 games). After that, close to nothing: Word +0.31, Adventure +0.27, Casual +0.21.

Losing ground: Simulation −0.84 per title (186 games), Roleplaying −0.92, Strategy −0.41, Puzzle −0.35. And yet the most new alerts came from exactly Puzzle and Casual — 24 each. Plenty of entries, no rollout: Puzzle is overheated, many go in, nobody makes it through.

_Window — 7 days with data._

Money for the week — only what the store showed us itself

Volume is growing, the money isn't showing

Mystery Dumpling: Unbox ASMR (Brocker Bus) — the install bracket went 5M → 10M over the week. 46 countries, #1 almost everywhere, seven days in a row. In Grossing — zero countries. There are purchases in the catalogue ($9.99–14.99), but the revenue chart does not see them. Pure ads on an enormous volume.

Alliance: Air War (Art of the State, 10 days) — the fastest rollout of the week on Android: 12 → 25 → 32 countries, #1. Installs 100k → 500k. Grossing empty. For a ten-day-old game that is normal, but this is the one to watch: if Grossing does not appear in two weeks, they are buying at a loss.

Titan Rope Hero: Vice City (Skyverty) — 1M → 5M installs, 40 countries #9, Grossing empty.

Find Em All! (Agave) — 100k → 500k, IAP $8.99, Grossing empty. The geo has been stuck at 16 countries for a second month while installs grew fourfold — which means they added depth in existing geos rather than new countries.

There were 11 of these over the week: bracket up, purchases in the catalogue, zero in the revenue chart.

Money without buying

Knock Knock: Room Defense (Joy Nice, 13 days) — the most interesting chart of the week. Top Free on Android: 1 country #92 → 4 countries #31. Grossing: 8 countries #34 → 18 countries #17. Revenue is outrunning the buying threefold. On iOS it had a wave up to 30 countries that collapsed to 8 — they bought on Apple, they pay on Google. A two-week-old game at #17 in 18 Grossing countries is not hypercasual economics; the ARPPU here is high.

First time in Grossing

Blade War: Three Kingdoms (EVISTA, 7 days) — straight to #2 in 9 countries while sitting in two countries in Top Free. Not HC, but telling: midcore is coming in past the free chart.

The other eight Grossing newcomers are one to three countries at the tail of the hundred — they got in on a technicality.

Growing Grossing

Besides Knock Knock and Pixel Gun 2, the movers were Superstore Story 3D (Pusilung) #89 → #74, countries 1 → 3, and Merge Bistro — 36 countries, #24, but that is a seasonal Labor Day event and it will deflate by next week.

Pays steadily

Galactic Merge Idle (VOODOO) — 35 countries Top Free #9 and 34 countries Grossing #32, all week without movement. It pays for itself, but it is not growing.

Publishers of the week

Oakever — 21 titles in the charts and +78 countries over the week

One publisher, two legal entities, both platforms. The total geo gain is bigger than any other five on the list combined.

Who moved: Zen Color 11 → 35 countries (#49 → #25) and Paint by Number 10 → 32 (#16 → #10) — both color-by-number, both on Android, both rolled out over the same period. The third colouring title, Colorever: Gem Art, went 12 → 27 countries on iOS, #13 → #3. Plus the fresh Connect Tracks (34 days) 2 → 9 countries, #80 → #20. And separately Sudoku Classic 26 → 40 countries, #32 → #14, with a live Grossing in 7 countries — a seven-year-old title lifted by buying.

On a plateau: Meowdoku 39–40 countries #1 on both platforms, Amaze GO! 45 countries #2, Zen Word 41 countries.

Read it this way: Oakever is rolling out colouring games as a whole block — three titles at once, not testing one. The decision was made at the category level, not per game. If you are curious what they found there, look now: in two weeks the geo will be everywhere.

HIGAME clones Brocker Bus title for title

Brocker Bus Studio, three titles, all ASMR unboxing: Bracelet Maker: DIY ASMR (July 9), Mystery Dumpling: Unbox ASMR (August 7), Mystery Dumpling: Squishy Box (August 25).

HIGAME — 13 titles under five legal entities. Among them: Bracelet DIY: ASMR Charm Maker (August 26), Mystery Dumpling Glitter Unbox (August 25).

For every Brocker hit a HIGAME copy comes out roughly a month and a half later, and Squishy Box and Glitter Unbox came out on the same day. Both are now side by side in the chart: the original 46 countries #1, the clone 39 countries #2 — the clone does not settle below, it settles right up against it.

HIGAME also clones itself: Paint & Hide: Color Guys (July 28) → Paint & Color: Hide Seek Guys (August 25), 14 and 26 countries respectively.

The practical takeaway: the window between a hit in ASMR unboxing and its clone is about six weeks.

Who was winding their portfolio down

Tripledot — 7 titles, −23 countries in total: Cube Tap Sort on Android 9 → 2, Stack Smash 12 → 5. Tests shut down.
Rollic — 2 titles, −21: Car Sort −11, Endless Puncher −10.
Karaage — −18, almost all of it on Toxic Love (Android 26 → 10).

Worth noting: Oakever, HIGAME and Brocker Bus all three work predominantly on Android, while the ones winding portfolios down are those sitting on both platforms. The cheap traffic right now is on Google.